Category Archives: Not A Party, not a problem

I Dont Hate Socialists

I don’t hate socialists. Some of my best friends are socialists. The socialist democratic style of governance we currently live under is just part of the natural progression towards a more mentally healthy and free society. The population of the world has almost completely rejected monarchies now, and governments are going to be next. Don’t be afraid. Embrace the positive changes where you see them. No one here is going to try forcing you to start running your own lives or anything. The change I want to see cannot be brought about that way. If I had aspirations of violently overthrowing the total drop kicks currently in power it would only mean I had delusions of being the next total drop kick. And being voted into power on my hobby horse with a saviour complex after making promises I’m not even expected to keep isn’t a dream of mine either. So don’t worry about me. I’m not a threat. I’m just not voting.

I’m not voting because this is what I see happening. The divisions we create through our glorification of representative politics are going be left behind. Splitting and pitting the population against itself  is going to seem stupid and go out of fashion. The next step from there towards better living is going to be the utilisation of direct democracy. Political puppets will  no longer be  believed in, so “the people” will get to vote on whichever separate issue they wish to instead of getting to vote for their choice of winning personality every three years as with the previous system. Under direct democracy minorities still get railroaded however, because decisions are still made by majority rule.

After that comes decentralisation, where communities decide for themselves how to run their affairs – working not in competition, but with appreciation for and recognition of each other. Trading or not trading freely without having to pay a tithe to a gluttonous central vacuum. Smaller groups have the capability of being more efficient and have more chance of reaching consensus. The democracy  wars will be over because people are looking to solve problems by discussing them rationally and reaching agreements seriously without wasting time and resources on huge marketing campaigns. Problems that can’t find resolution will be understood as not being important enough for any decision to have been made at that time.  This is a non-hierarchical system that understands the difference between being an authority on a subject, and having authority over subjects. Where leadership skills and gaining  proficiency in a discipline are respected right up until they’re used as reasons to  justify someone’s superiority complex.

Individuals seeking to achieve dominance over others will be understood to be showing signs of emotional insecurity and mental unwellness which will be addressed with the appropriate level of care and support. Effective strategies for rejecting that antisocial behaviour without falling prey to it oneself will be become more ingrained as our appreciation for personal responsibility increases. People will be able to be as different as they like (without making others feel insecure and defensive) once the ultimate transgression of assuming power over another has finally become socially unacceptable.

This might sound like hopeful idealism and wishful thinking to you. And I don’t necessarily know that it isn’t. I’m not super confident. We might all be too emotionally crippled to ever get it together. But some people have to actually say these things to help the chances of them happening. That’s how idealism works. We can’t work out how to get where were going if we don’t know where that is. And the movement towards this ideal is visibly happening. Dickensian times were not so long ago. They were pretty awful and resulted in socialism being invented. So no, I don’t hate socialists. I can understand what socialism was an answer to. But the days of ganging up to force our precious opinions and personal agendas on others being considered an acceptable manner in which to conduct ourselves are numbered.

So if you think you need to be forcibly controlled or want to forcibly control other people I want  to ask you, what’s up? Everything okay at home? Who hurt you so bad  you became damaged enough to believe either one of those two things was a good idea? Let’s go over here and investigate the deficit. Let’s see if we can’t find a more constructive and assertive way to deal with the pain you are obviously in. Your suffering is apparent, but everything is going to be alright. It’s okay to be insecure, but there are ways to change that. You do have to want that change for yourself though. Help is available, but it’s important that you know you’re the one who has to do the hard work. Nobody else can do it for you. How do you feel about that? Don’t answer in a hurry. Just sit with it for a few minutes.  I’ll put the jug on.

You do the math

One of the many sad facts about New Zealand’s democracy is that most people don’t really understand how the system works, or what the election night results really mean.

Agent Orange to the rescue! Not A Party, not a problem.

I’m going to try to explain what just happened by way of an analogy.

I’m going to compare Not A Party’s performance on election night to National’s performance on election night, and the analogy I’m going to use is comparing the number of non-drivers to the number of drivers cruising along in blue cars. (Blue being the colour that represents the National Party.)

So I’ll give you the results to compare first and then show my working.

There’s five different ways we can spin the stats.

1. Seats in Parliament using the Sainte-Laguë allocation formula.

National 48.3%
NAP 0.0%

There are 120 seats in Parliament. 58 of those seats go to National. By analogy, suppose that there are 120 cars currently travelling on the road. 58 of those cars are blue. There are no non-drivers on the road. There are no stoned drivers on the road either, they parked up for a smoke, and Gareth Morgan also pulled over, he hit a cat and stopped to make sure that it was really dead. 58 out of 120 is 48.3%.

2. Percentage of actual votes by those who actually voted.

National 46.0%
NAP 0.0%

The analogy is to all cars on the road, before they park up, pull over, or break down. National got 46% of the party vote, 46% of the cars on the road are blue. The ALCP got 0.3% of the vote, 0.3% of the cars are travelling at 65 kph on the open road. Gareth Morgan hasn’t run over any cats yet. So in this second calculation non-voters and non-drivers (including drivers behind the wheels of stationary vehicles) aren’t included in the numbers.

3. Percentage of actual votes by those who were enrolled to vote.

National 36.2%
NAP 21.2%

This calculation includes all drivers who own cars, not just those drivers who own cars and are on the road. NAP enters the race, so to speak. 21.2% of drivers with cars didn’t go out on the road, they stayed home, their cars stayed in the garage or were parked outside on the street. 36.2% of all cars are blue and on the highway.

4. Percentage of actual votes by those who were eligible to be enrolled to vote.

This calculation includes all drivers, including those who don’t currently own cars. 33.0% of all drivers were driving on the road and driving blue cars. 28.2% of all drivers weren’t even driving that day, because they decided not to or simply couldn’t because they fell on carless days.

National 33.0%
NAP 28.2%

5. Percentage of actual votes by those who were eligible to be enrolled to vote, including wasted votes in NAP’s non-vote tally.

National 33.0%
NAP 31.3%

This is the same number as above for National. 33.0% of all drivers were driving on the road and driving blue cars. But the grand total for the disenfranchised is 31.3%. By analogy, 31.3% of all drivers weren’t even driving that day, because they decided not to or simply couldn’t because they didn’t even have a car, or they were driving but had pulled over, parked up, or broken down on the side of the road.

So that’s all the important numbers.

Now, the burning question is, who won the election, the National Party or Not A Party?

National did, we was robbed! Any way you spin it, there were more people who voted National than people who were in some way disenfranchised. NAP is under no illusions.

Now to show my working.

Here are some official stats from the Electoral Commission.

The following are estimated population statistics as at 30 June 2017 based on projections from 2013 census data, and actual enrolment statistics as at 22 September 2017 (the day before the 23 September general election). The dates don’t quite match up but there were

3,569,830 people eligible to enrol
3,252,269 people actually enrolled
91.1% of people eligible to enrol were actually enrolled

Here are some more stats from the Electoral Commission.

Voter turnout for the 2017 General Election is estimated to be 78.8% of those enrolled as at 6pm Friday 22 September. This compares with a final 77.9% turnout of those enrolled in 2014.

So estimated (by the Electoral Commission) voter turnout was 78.8%.

78.8% of 91.1% is 71.8% of those eligible to enrol to vote actually enrolled and voted.

So that’s 28.2% of those eligible to enrol and vote that didn’t actually vote.

Now let’s look at the percentages of those that did actually vote. Obviously, this doesn’t include non-voters. Non-voters were exactly 0.0% of those who voted.

More stats from the Electoral Commission.

Of those who voted, 46.0% voted National. 35.8% voted Labour, 7.5% voted NZ First, 5.9% voted Greens, 0.5% voted ACT. That adds up to 95.7%. The remaining 4.3% of voters voted for parties like ALCP and TOP who failed to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP voting system and didn’t get any electorate seats. That means that those 4.3% of votes are wasted, because they don’t get input into the Sainte-Laguë formula which is used to allocate actual seats in Parliament.

There are 120 seats in Parliament. Projected seats are 58 to National, 45 to Labour, 9 to NZ First, 7 to the Greens, 1 to ACT. Note that 58 seats out of 120 is 48.3%.

Please note that the results published by the Electoral Commission on election night are preliminary results. Final results after special votes are counted may change the National Party’s percentages, but not NAP’s. There was an election and the government got elected. Deal with it.